Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 2508105
Sist endret: 26. mars 2021, 10:15

Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 2508105
Sist endret: 26. mars 2021, 10:15
Prosjekt

Coping with flexibility. Behavioral adaptations to the new pension system and their consequences in a lifetime perspective

prosjektleder

Anne Skevik Grødem
ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning

prosjekteier / koordinerende forskningsansvarlig enhet

  • Institutt for samfunnsforskning

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Samfunnsøkonomi • Statsvitenskap og organisasjonsteori • Sosiologi

Emneord

Fordeling av inntekt og velferd • Pensjoner • Arbeidsliv

Kategorier

Prosjektkategori

  • Oppdragsprosjekt

Tidsramme

Avsluttet
Start: 1. januar 2018 Slutt: 31. desember 2020

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Coping with flexibility. Behavioral adaptations to the new pension system and their consequences in a lifetime perspective

Populærvitenskapelig sammendrag

The aim of the “Coping…”-project has been to analyze how older workers in Norway adapt to the flexibility in the reformed (post-2011) pension system. In particular, we look into what may look like a paradox: that the proportion who start early take-up increases, while the proportion who actually withdraw from employment early decreases. In other words, a new practice is developing where it is common to combine pension take-up and paid employment for some years after age 62. This option is particularly popular among men. The aim of this project has been, first, to better understand how older workers reason around these issues, and second, to investigate how they administer the extra assets they gain access to in this period.

The project has been a cooperation between the Institute for social research, Statistics Norway, and research institutes NOVA and Fafo. It has been organised in three modules. Module A and C have aimed to generate original research, while the aim of module B has been to update a data set on individuals’ access to workplace-based pensions (AFP and occupational schemes).

Module A is based on analyses of register data. In the first analyses, we have looked into the high proportion who chose to take up pension as early as possible, while still working full time. This popular option will, in most cases, be associated with a smaller or larger loss of lifetime income. We start by investigating whether early pension claiming can be explained by observable factors like life-expectancy based on socioeconomic differences, wealth accumulation and aspects of the family situation. Life-expectancy is estimated within the micro-simulation model, MOSART. MOSART is further used to compare the value of lifetime incomes given alternative choices with respect to the timing of pension claiming. Finally, we use machine learning to disentangle which of these factors (observed characteristics versus unobserved preferences) that seem to take precedence. The results show that individuals have a higher probability of starting pension claiming early if they are married, have grown-up children, high debt, high housing wealth, and a short remaining life-expectancy. Nevertheless, there remains a substantial unexplained variation in pension claiming behaviour that can be attributed to (unobserved) differences in time preferences and hence in the propensity to give priority to the present at the expense of the future. It is well established in existing research that many individuals are prone to reject offers to buy annuity on favourable terms even if this would appear to be objectively rational given neutral time preferences. This phenomenon is known as the ?annuity paradox?. We conclude that the propensity to start taking out old age pensions early among those who continue working after age 62 is driven by the same mechanisms that drive the more general annuity paradox.

In module B, we have updated and improved a set of microdata on access to workplace-based pensions in the private sector. This dataset is not finalized and ready for use.

Within module C we are producing three articles all based on qualitative interviews that are focused on different aspects of the reasons individuals give for their behavioural adaptations to the new pension system. 28 interviews with private-sector employees aged 55-66 were conducted in late 2019. The first article addresses the same thematic as the above mentioned article from Modul A by investigating employees' reasons for drawing / not drawing old age pension while still in employment, and what those who combine wages and pension do with the extra liquidity they receive. The second article examines variations in planned retirement timing, as well as links between timing and aspirations for life in retirement. Article number three explores how older workers relate to the public rhetoric about longer careers.

prosjektdeltakere

prosjektleder

Anne Skevik Grødem

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektleder
    ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning
Aktiv cristin-person

Elin Halvorsen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Forskningsavdelingen, Makroøkonomi ved Statistisk sentralbyrå
Aktiv cristin-person

Axel West Pedersen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Velferdsforskningsinstituttet NOVA ved OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet
Aktiv cristin-person

Hege Kitterød

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning
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Resultater Resultater

Older workers imagining retirement: the collapse of agency, or freedom at last?

Grødem, Anne Skevik; Kitterød, Hege. 2021, Ageing & Society. ISFVitenskapelig artikkel

Arbeidslinja – nå også for 70-åringer? Eldre arbeidstakeres tanker om lønnsarbeid, pensjon og det gode liv.

Grødem, Anne Skevik. 2020, Søkelys på arbeidslivet. ISFVitenskapelig artikkel

Pensjonsreformen – mellom likhet og effektivitet. Insentivstruktur og fordelingsvirkninger i ny folketrygd.

Pedersen, Axel West; Halvorsen, Elin. 2018, Forskningsfrokost. SSB, ISFVitenskapelig foredrag
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