Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 420326
Sist endret: 27. september 2016, 12:21

Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 420326
Sist endret: 27. september 2016, 12:21
Prosjekt

Applying a new demographic framework to understand and project consequences of climate change in size- and age-structured populations

prosjektleder

Yngvild Vindenes
ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo

prosjekteier / koordinerende forskningsansvarlig enhet

  • Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo

Finansiering

  • Norges forskningsråd
    Prosjektkode: 224738

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Demografi • Økologi • Naturressursforvaltning

Emneord

Klimaeffekter • Populasjonsdynamikk • Livshistorie • Demografi • Livshistorievariasjon

Kategorier

Prosjektkategori

  • Grunnforskning

Tidsramme

Avsluttet
Start: 1. mars 2013 Slutt: 31. desember 2016

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Applying a new demographic framework to understand and project consequences of climate change in size- and age-structured populations

Populærvitenskapelig sammendrag

Freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change, because of high pressure from other human activities and because freshwater species have limited possibilities to adjust by migration. Temperate Northern lakes have shown a warming trend over the last decades, and climate models predict a continued increase in average temperatures in the future.

In order to understand population level consequences of climate change as well as other impacts, we need to consider how individual responses depend on properties like body size or age. In aquatic organisms vital rates like survival and reproduction are often largely determined by body size. In this project we will extend and apply the demographic model framework of integral projection models (IPM) to study impacts of climate change and other factors (eutrophication, harvesting, stocking, extreme events) in two size-structured freshwater fish species: Pike (Esox lucius) from the lake Windermere (UK), and Brown trout (Salmo trutta) from the lake Mjøsa and river Gudbrandsdalslågen (Norway). As top predators, the responses of these species to climate change may have large consequences for the ecosystem.

Size structure is rarely considered in studies of population responses to climate
 change, but is likely important for many organisms. This project brings together recently developed theory and existing high quality data to help answer some of the unresolved questions of climate change research, providing valuable knowledge for size-structured management.

Vitenskapelig sammendrag

Fresh waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change, which affects temperature as well as other physical and chemical water properties. Temperate Northern lakes have shown an increasing temperature trend in the last decades, and climate models proj ect a continued temperature increase of surface waters as well as changes in stratification patterns. In this project we take an innovative approach to study ecosystem responses to climate change, by extending the demographic framework of integral project ion modeling (IPM) to include key drivers of climate change, and applying it to unique long-term individual-based data from two freshwater fish species, brown trout (Norway) and pike (UK). As top predators, the responses of these species to climate change may have large consequences for the ecosystems. IPM is a powerful approach that can incorporate population structure from a mixture of discrete and continuous state variables, such as age and body size. Size structure is rarely considered in relation to climate change, but it is most likely important because many organisms have highly size-dependent vital rates. Here, we will study consequences of climate change in combination with harvesting, eutrophication, and stocking, as well as threshold effects of extreme events. Based on developed climate change scenarios for the two local regions we will use our models to project future responses to climate change. We will also consider opportunities for adaptive management based on the new approach. This project brings together recently developed theory and existing data in a synergistic fashion that will help answer some of the unresolved questions of climate change research. Analyzing these questions in the context of size-structured populations is at the fro ntier of ecological research, and acknowledges the need for management to be size-specific. Our results will provide valuable knowledge for management of size-structured organisms, also beyond aquatic ecosystems.

prosjektdeltakere

prosjektleder

Yngvild Vindenes

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektleder
    ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo
Inaktiv cristin-person

Jan Philipp Ohlberger

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo
Aktiv cristin-person

Øystein Ole Gahr Langangen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo
Aktiv cristin-person

Leif Asbjørn Vøllestad

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo
Inaktiv cristin-person

Thomas Owens Svennungsen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ved Universitetet i Oslo
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Resultater Resultater

The relative impacts of early life conditions and maternal size effects in determining average fitness and population growth of pike .

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein; Winfield, Ian J.; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn. 2016, ICES Annual Science Conference 2016. UIOVitenskapelig foredrag

Life history: Pike.

Vindenes, Yngvild. 2016, Elsevier. UIOLeksikonartikkel

Fitness consequences of early life conditions and maternal size effects in a freshwater top predator.

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein; Winfield, Ian J.; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn. 2016, Journal of Animal Ecology. CEH, UIOVitenskapelig artikkel

Individual variation and eco-evolutionary dynamics: Towards more flexible model frameworks and new applications.

Vindenes, Yngvild. 2016, OIKOS Per Brink thematic symposium . UIOVitenskapelig foredrag

Fitness consequences of early life conditions and maternal size effects in pike (Esox lucius) .

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein; Winfield, Ian J.; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn. 2015, Annual meeting of the Evolutionary Demography Society 2015 . UIOVitenskapelig foredrag
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