Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 450865
Sist endret: 16. september 2016 17:41
Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 450865
Sist endret: 16. september 2016 17:41
Prosjekt

Climate Change and its Impacts on Selected Indian Hydrological Systems using Earth System and High-Resolution Modeling (NORINDIA)

prosjektleder

Michel Dos Santos Mesquita
ved Uni Research Klima ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

prosjekteier / koordinerende forskningsansvarlig enhet

  • Uni Research Klima ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Finansiering

  • TotalbudsjettNOK 5.980.000
  • Norges forskningsråd

    • Prosjektkode: 216576

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Fysikk • Meteorologi • Hydrologi • Statistikk • Anvendt matematikk • Matematisk modellering og numeriske metoder

Emneord

Klima • Hydrologiske modeller • Klimadynamikk

Kategorier

Prosjektkategori

  • Anvendt forskning

Kontaktinformasjon

Tidsramme

Avsluttet
Start: 1. oktober 2012 Slutt: 1. juni 2015

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Climate Change and its Impacts on Selected Indian Hydrological Systems using Earth System and High-Resolution Modeling (NORINDIA)

Populærvitenskapelig sammendrag

Due to its diversified socio-economic and climatic regions, India is prominently vulnerable to the ensuing climate changes and related impacts. An increase in temperature and changes in the overall precipitation patterns have a profound impact on the water availability. The advent of climate change and its impact on glacier melt may lead to abrupt floods in regions neighboring the Himalayas. Hence, understanding the monsoon variability and the hydrological cycle in the baseline and future time scales would enrich the information available for policy makers and stakeholders for informed decision making - this is the objective of the NORINDIA project. In this article, a discussion of this multi-national project will be made, looking into its structure, first results and challenges.

The NORINDIA Project draws its research activities on an existing partnership between Norway and India with five Norwegian and three Indian collaborators. The project is coordinated by Dr. Michel Mesquita (Uni Research/BCCR) and the Norwegian collaborators of the project are the University of Bergen and Oslo, the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) and SN Power. The Indian partners are: the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS) and The Energy and Resources Institute (IITM). Besides these institutions, the project also brings in contribution from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States, thus drawing on their expertise in hydrological modelling. NORINDIA is therefore a multi-disciplinary and unique project, not only due to the gamut of participant institutions, but also for the state-of-the-art science it develops. 

This project has five Work Packages (WP), which deal with large-scale atmospheric processes down to smaller scales. WP1 studies the effect of climate change in the Indian monsoon. WP2 quantifies the role of snow and surface processes on the  Indian summer monsoon. WP3 quantifies the role of snow and glacier melt on water resources. WP4 investigates the hydrological changes during monsoon droughts over India. WP5 studies changes in the hydrological cycle in the present and future climate. Hence, all of the WPs in NORINDIA work together to integrate results across spatial and temporal scales to produce a unified understanding on how climate change may affect the monsoon and water availability in India.

Initial results from WP1, using the RCP8.5 scenario, indicate an increase of around 10% in summer rainfall during the period 2076-2096 compared to recent climate in the Indo-Pacific region. In WP2, it was found that cold conditions over a broad region centred on the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau lower the land-ocean temperature contrast and delay the monsoon onset by about 9 days. Moreover, the study also found a bias in the snow depth from the 20th century reanalysis data, which could mean that the snow-monsoon onset linkage is overestimated. WP3 shows that moisture entering the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins come from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. MERRA reanalysis data overestimates the amount of snow due to excess and northward shift in the precipitation pattern coming into high-lying areas. WP4.3 found a weakening of the South Asian monsoon circulation and a decrease of monsoon precipitation over the Indian subcontinent in the future decades.

NORINDIA aims at providing a thorough hydrological assessment for India using state-of-the-art modelling - addressing changes in climate based on IPPC AR5 scenarios. It is hoped that it may make a significant contribution to stakeholders and policy-makers, with respect to the future of water resources in India.

Vitenskapelig sammendrag

Climate change issues are global in nature, yet they are quite variable at the regional scale and they affect most of the developing and under-developed regions in the world. Due to its diversified socio-economic and climatic regions, India is prominently vulnerable to the ensuing climate changes and related impacts. An increase in temperature and changes in the overall precipitation patterns have a profound impact on the water availability. This is especially the case for glacial melt or runoff generated in the Himalayan region. A large number of the Indian population is dependent on these water resources. India receives annual precipitation of about 4000 km3 of which 3000 km3 is received due to monsoon variability in this region. The river systems in India also consist of perennial and seasonal rivers depending on the monsoons to a larger extent. Thus the monsoon variability would have a large impact on the rainfall available for the reservoirs and access to water for the communities living there. The advent of climate change and its impact on glacier melt may lead to abrupt floods in regions neighboring the Himalayas.

Impact sectors that are highly relevant for India are related to water security. The quality of the impacts assessments depends on the quality of the climate change projections. It is also essential to reduce the inherent uncertainties in a climate model by representing regional/local processes in an elaborate way, but also to estimate respective confidence intervals of these projections. Essentially, all adaptation strategies to address these sectoral vulnerabilities should also have the risk assessment components as well to estimate these inherent uncertainties – both due to systematic and cascaded biases. Climate models are the numerical tools, which provide the stakeholders and impact researchers with approximations of plausible changes in climate. The existing state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) are yet to be fine-tuned to resolve the complexities of the Indian summer monsoon and other hydrological processes over regional scales. Understanding of the monsoon variability in the baseline and future time scales would in turn enrich the information available for policy makers and stakeholders for informed decision making. Prerequisites for such an assessment would mean downscaling of IPCC-based projections at high spatial resolution. The mitigation policies in India would also require such information, both at macro and micro scales, generated on this scientific basis. Thus, strengthened climate modeling capabilities in India could fill the gaps in providing important pre-requisites for an effective policy framework.

This project draws its research activities on an existing partnership between Norway and India (TERI-BCCR Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs capacity building project) with new collaborators: a) in Norway: NILU, UiB, UiO, SN Power; b) in India: IITM and CMMACS. It is a multi-disciplinary project per se and very unique not only due to the gamut of participant institutions, but also due to its state-of-the-art science. 

 

Metode

NORINDIA uses different models to understand changes in water resources in India in the future. These include Earth System Models, such as the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and other IPCC AR5 models; regional climate models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model; hydrological models, such as SWAT and WRF-Hydro, and other models to assess snow and moisture transport to the region.

Each Work Package focuses on a specific scale of climate variability: from large to basin scale. Several statistical methods are used for the analyses of each Work Package. These include the assessment of uncertainty.

Utstyr

Supercomputing resources provided by NOTUR.

prosjektdeltakere

prosjektleder
Aktiv cristin-person

Michel Dos Santos Mesquita

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektleder
    ved Uni Research Klima ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Frode Stordal

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Institutt for geofag ved Universitetet i Oslo

Retish Senan

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Meteorologi og oseanografi ved Universitetet i Oslo

Ellen Marie Viste

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Geofysisk institutt ved Universitetet i Bergen
Aktiv cristin-person

Asgeir Sorteberg

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Geofysisk institutt ved Universitetet i Bergen
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Resultater Resultater

Evaluating the present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model.

Li, Lu; Gochis, David; Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter; Mesquita, Michel d. S.. 2016, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016. NORCEPoster

Forecasting India's water future.

Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Veldore, Vidyunmala; Li, Lu; Krishnan, Raishma V.; Orsolini, Yvan; Senan, Retish; Ramarao, M.V.S.; Viste, Ellen. 2016, EOS. NILU, NORCE, UIO, INDIA, UIBVitenskapelig artikkel

Rethinking uncertainty in climate simulators: experiment design, parameter space, and genealogy.

Mesquita, Michel d. S.. 2015, VI SIC Simpósio Internacional de Climatologia. NORCEVitenskapelig foredrag

Helping to Make Sense of Regional Climate Modeling: Professional Development for Scientists and Decision Makers Anytime, Anywhere.

Walton, Peter J.; Yarker, Morgan B.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Otto, Friederike E. L.. 2016, Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). NORCE, UoOVitenskapelig artikkel

Evaluation of parameterization schemes in the Weather and Research Forecasting model through asymmetrical fractional factorial designs.

Souza, Fabio A.; Vivacqua, Carla; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Pedra, George U.. 2015, Royal Statistical Society 2015 Conference. NORCEVitenskapelig foredrag
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