Cristin-resultat-ID: 1402764
Sist endret: 13. februar 2017 15:53
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2016
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2016

Estimating age-specific immunity and force of infection of varicella zoster virus in Norway using mixture models

Bidragsytere:
  • Emanuele Del Fava
  • Grazina Rimseliene
  • Elmira Flem
  • Birgitte Freiesleben De Blasio
  • Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba og
  • Piero Manfredi

Tidsskrift

PLOS ONE
ISSN 1932-6203
e-ISSN 1932-6203
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2016
Volum: 11
Hefte: 9
Artikkelnummer: e0163636
Open Access

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-84992079503

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Estimating age-specific immunity and force of infection of varicella zoster virus in Norway using mixture models

Sammendrag

This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios.

Bidragsytere

Emanuele Del Fava

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università Commerciale 'Luigi Bocconi'

Grazina Mirinaviciute

Bidragsyterens navn vises på dette resultatet som Grazina Rimseliene
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Folkehelseinstituttet

Elmira Flem

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for infeksjonsepidemiologi og modellering ved Folkehelseinstituttet

Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio

Bidragsyterens navn vises på dette resultatet som Birgitte Freiesleben De Blasio
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for biostatistikk ved Universitetet i Oslo
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for infeksjonsepidemiologi og modellering ved Folkehelseinstituttet

Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata
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