Cristin-resultat-ID: 1579391
Sist endret: 9. juni 2019, 13:44
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2018
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2018

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming and implications for regional impacts

Bidragsytere:
  • Camille Li
  • Clio Michel
  • Lise Seland Graff
  • Ingo Bethke
  • Guiseppe Zappa
  • Thomas J. Bracegirdle
  • mfl.

Tidsskrift

Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
ISSN 2190-4979
e-ISSN 2190-4987
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2018
Volum: 9
Hefte: 2
Sider: 359 - 382
Open Access

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85045552073

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming and implications for regional impacts

Sammendrag

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accu- rately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the cir- culation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 ◦C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equator- ward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 ◦C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 ◦C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

Bidragsytere

Camille Li

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Geofysisk institutt ved Universitetet i Bergen

Clio Michel

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Geofysisk institutt ved Universitetet i Bergen

Lise Seland Graff

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Meteorologisk institutt

Ingo Bethke

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved NORCE Klima og miljø ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Guiseppe Zappa

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved University of Reading
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