Cristin-resultat-ID: 1593072
Sist endret: 4. juli 2018, 14:57
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2018
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2018

Inferring Surface Albedo Prediction Error Linked to Forest Structure at High Latitudes

Bidragsytere:
  • Ryan M. Bright
  • Stephanie Eisner
  • Marianne Tronstad Lund
  • Titta Majasalmi
  • Gunnar Myhre og
  • Rasmus Andreas Astrup

Tidsskrift

Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres
ISSN 2169-897X
e-ISSN 2169-8996
NVI-nivå 2

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2018
Volum: 123
Hefte: 10
Sider: 4910 - 4925
Open Access

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85047490078

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Inferring Surface Albedo Prediction Error Linked to Forest Structure at High Latitudes

Sammendrag

Predicting the surface albedo of a forest of a given species composition or plant functional type is complicated by the wide range of structural attributes it may display. Accurate characterizations of forest structure are therefore essential to reducing the uncertainty of albedo predictions in forests, particularly in the presence of snow. At present, forest albedo parameterizations remain a nonnegligible source of uncertainty in climate models, and the magnitude attributable to insufficient characterization of forest structure remains unclear. Here we employ a forest classification scheme based on the assimilation of Fennoscandic (i.e., Norway, Sweden, and Finland) national forest inventory data to quantify the magnitude of the albedo prediction error attributable to poor characterizations of forest structure. For a spatial domain spanning ~611,000 km2 of boreal forest, we find a mean absolute wintertime (December–March) albedo prediction error of 0.02, corresponding to a mean absolute radiative forcing ~0.4 W/m2. Further, we evaluate the implication of excluding albedo trajectories linked to structural transitions in forests during transient simulations of anthropogenic land use/land cover change. We find that, for an intensively managed forestry region in southeastern Norway, neglecting structural transitions over the next quarter century results in a foregone (undetected) radiatively equivalent impact of ~178 Mt‐CO2‐eq. year−1 on average during this period—a magnitude that is roughly comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of a country such as The Netherlands. Our results affirm the importance of improving the characterization of forest structure when simulating surface albedo and associated climate effects.

Bidragsytere

Ryan M. Bright

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Divisjon for skog og utmark ved Norsk institutt for bioøkonomi

Stephanie Eisner

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Divisjon for skog og utmark ved Norsk institutt for bioøkonomi

Marianne Tronstad Lund

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved CICERO Senter for klimaforskning

Titta Majasalmi

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Divisjon for skog og utmark ved Norsk institutt for bioøkonomi

Gunnar Myhre

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved CICERO Senter for klimaforskning
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