Cristin-resultat-ID: 1609495
Sist endret: 30. november 2018 16:00
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2018
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2018

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Bidragsytere:
  • Chelsea L. Parker
  • Cindy Bruyère
  • Priscilla Mooney og
  • Amanda H. Lynch

Tidsskrift

Climate Dynamics
ISSN 0930-7575
e-ISSN 1432-0894
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2018
Publisert online: 2018
Trykket: 2018
Volum: 51
Hefte: 9-10
Sider: 3467 - 3485

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85041119512

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Sammendrag

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5–10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Bidragsytere

Chelsea L. Parker

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Brown University

Cindy Bruyère

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Noordwes-Universiteit

Priscilla Mooney

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved NORCE Klima ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Amanda H. Lynch

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Brown University
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