Cristin-resultat-ID: 1697694
Sist endret: 27. januar 2020 12:39
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2019
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2019

Using Bayesian model probability for ranking different prior scenarios in reservoir history matching

Bidragsytere:
  • Sigurd Ivar Aanonsen
  • Svenn Tveit og
  • Mathias Alerini

Tidsskrift

SPE Journal
ISSN 1086-055X
e-ISSN 1930-0220
NVI-nivå 2

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2019
Publisert online: 2019
Volum: 24
Hefte: 4
Sider: 1490 - 1507

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Matematikk og naturvitenskap

Emneord

Petroleumsgeologi • Bayesianske modeller

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Using Bayesian model probability for ranking different prior scenarios in reservoir history matching

Sammendrag

This paper considers Bayesian methods to discriminate between models depending on posterior model probability. When applying ensemble-based methods for model updating or history matching, the uncertainties in the parameters are typically assumed to be univariate Gaussian random fields. In reality, however, there often might be several alternative scenarios that are possible a priori. We take that into account by applying the concepts of model likelihood and model probability and suggest a method that uses importance sampling to estimate these quantities from the prior and posterior ensembles. In particular, we focus on the problem of conditioning a dynamic reservoir-simulation model to frequent 4D-seismic data (e.g., permanent-reservoir-monitoring data) by tuning the top reservoir surface given several alternative prior interpretations with uncertainty. However, the methodology can easily be applied to similar problems, such as fault location and reservoir compartmentalization. Although the estimated posterior model probabilities will be uncertain, the ranking of models according to estimated probabilities appears to be quite robust

Bidragsytere

Sigurd Aanonsen

Bidragsyterens navn vises på dette resultatet som Sigurd Ivar Aanonsen
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved NORCE Energi ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Svenn Tveit

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved NORCE Energi ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Mathias Alerini

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Equinor
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