Power Price Scenarios - Results from the Reference scenario and the Low Emission scenario

This report is written as a part of HydroCen WP3.1. The aim of the research described in this report is to show and quantify variation in power prices in Northern Europe in 2030. The background for this study is the need for reduction of green-house-gases (GHG) emissions and EUs policy for transforming the energy system and in particular the power system to low carbon systems. The assessment of power prices in Northern Europe in 2030 uses scenario methodology. A Reference scenario and Low emission scenario are defined for 2030. The Reference scenario is based on a renewable target of 27% in 2030 in the energy mix. The Low emission scenario aims to reflect the most recent targets and ambitions for the power sys-tem in Northern Europe in 2030. In this scenario, a larger share of the power production is based on wind and solar resources. The report compose and discusses results from the Reference and Low emission sce-narios with focus on production mix and impact on power prices. The aim is to achieve an improved un-derstanding of price characteristics and the price drivers in 2030. The results show that the price variation increase in the Low emissions scenario as more renewables are added to the system. In Norway the maximum price difference within a 24-hour period, a week and a month approximately doubles in the Low emission scenario compared to the Reference scenario. Further quantitative measures of this increase are shown in the report. Furthermore, it is shown that the short-term price variation is much higher in Germany and Great Britain than in Norway. The income for a hydro-power producer in Southern Norway is shown to hardly increase in the Low emission scenario compared to the Reference scenario as the average power price decrease. However, it is also show that hydropower producers achieve a higher value per unit of energy produced than wind and solar power plants and that the value of flexibility increases in the Low emission scenario compared to the Reference scenario. In the Low emission scenario, there are periods with zero prices in the South of Norway. A main part of the nearly zero prices are observed during the summer but there are also occurrences in the winter. More detailed economic results are given for some hydropower plants, some of which include pumping. The realized value of hydropower plants with pumping might be underestimated.