Cristin-resultat-ID: 1741473
Sist endret: 30. oktober 2019, 09:39
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2019
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2019

Estimating and predicting the operational costs of road tolls : an econometric assessment using panel data

Bidragsytere:
  • James Odeck

Tidsskrift

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
ISSN 0965-8564
e-ISSN 1879-2375
NVI-nivå 2

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2019
Volum: 130
Hefte: December
Sider: 466 - 478

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85073036971

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Estimating and predicting the operational costs of road tolls : an econometric assessment using panel data

Sammendrag

We develop an econometric procedure to estimate the operational costs of toll road projects. To show its usefulness for planning future tolls, we test its predictive power on out-of-the sample observations. Thus, the rationale for the paper is that previous studies have utilized less succinct econometric frameworks to derive factors that significantly explain the operational costs of toll roads and have provided little evidence regarding the predictive power of the models used. Panel data on 33 Norwegian toll road projects observed during the period 2011–2015 are used for the purpose, resulting in a total of 165 observations. The results reveal the following: (i) Toll operations are heterogeneous, so that individual characteristics matter; ceteris paribus, this should be accounted for when estimating operational costs. (ii) The average operational cost per vehicle (AVC) processed at tolls is approximately 4 NOK (≈ US$ 0.44). (iii) The volume of vehicle throughput reduces operational costs, demonstrating the existence of scale economies; the number of lanes served increases operational costs; the use of an Open Road Toll (ORT) charging system reduces operational costs; the tendering of toll collections reduces operational costs; and the share of vehicles that use On Board Units (OBU) reduces operational costs. It is shown that the econometric model developed here has high predictive power and can be used to predict the operational costs of future tolls. These results reaffirm the results of some earlier studies but serve to warn that one should not be indifferent to the framework of analysis used, as the results may not be statistically significant and robust. The econometric framework developed here is an advance due to its predictive power. Keywords: road tolls, estimating operational cost, predictions, econometrics, Norway

Bidragsytere

Aktiv cristin-person

James Oyugi Odeck

Bidragsyterens navn vises på dette resultatet som James Odeck
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Institutt for bygg- og miljøteknikk ved Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for logistikk ved Høgskolen i Molde - Vitenskapelig høgskole i logistikk
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