Cristin-resultat-ID: 1781950
Sist endret: 2. juni 2020 23:55
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2020

A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2

Bidragsytere:
  • Alan M. Haywood
  • Julia C. Tindall
  • Harry J. Dowsett
  • Aisling M. Dolan
  • Kevin M. Foley
  • Zhongshi Zhang
  • mfl.

Tidsskrift

Climate of the Past Discussions
ISSN 1814-9340
e-ISSN 1814-9359
NVI-nivå 0

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2020
Publisert online: 2020
Trykket: 2020

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Tittel

A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2

Sammendrag

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports.

Bidragsytere

Alan M. Haywood

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved University of Leeds

Julia C. Tindall

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

Harry J. Dowsett

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

Aisling M. Dolan

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

Kevin M. Foley

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
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