Cristin-resultat-ID: 1926562
Sist endret: 20. oktober 2021, 09:09
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2021
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2021

The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia

Bidragsytere:
  • Steffen Juranek og
  • Floris Tobias Zoutman

Tidsskrift

Journal of Population Economics
ISSN 0933-1433
e-ISSN 1432-1475
NVI-nivå 2

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2021
Publisert online: 2021
Trykket: 2021
Volum: 34
Sider: 1299 - 1320

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85111483864

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia

Sammendrag

We study the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 on the allocation of scarce resources in the hospital sector in Scandinavia. Denmark and Norway imposed strict NPIs, but Sweden followed an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event study to compare COVID-19 hospitalizations, intensive-care (ICU) patients, and deaths in Sweden with Denmark and Norway. The outcome variables initially follow a common trend, but diverge 2–3 weeks after lockdown. Both the timing of the effect and the similarity in the trend between Denmark and Norway are highly consistent with a causal effect of the lockdown. We use our event study to build a counterfactual model that predicts the outcome variables for Denmark and Norway if they had followed Sweden’s approach. In the absence of strict NPIs, the peak number of hospitalizations would have been 2.5 (3.5) times as large in Denmark (Norway). Overall, Denmark (Norway) would have had 334 (671) percent more hospital-patient days, 277 (379) percent more ICU-patient days, and 402 (1015) percent more deaths. The benefit of lockdown in terms of healthcare and mortality costs amounts to between 1 and 4 (0.9 and 3.5) percent of GDP in Denmark (Norway).

Bidragsytere

Steffen Juranek

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Institutt for foretaksøkonomi ved Norges Handelshøyskole

Floris Tobias Zoutman

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Institutt for foretaksøkonomi ved Norges Handelshøyskole
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved CESifo-Gruppe
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