Cristin-resultat-ID: 1933215
Sist endret: 31. mars 2022, 13:29
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2021
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2021

Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

Bidragsytere:
  • Emmanuel Junior Zuza
  • Kadmiel Maseyk
  • Shonil A. Bhagwat
  • Kaue de Sousa
  • Andrew Emmott
  • William Rawes
  • mfl.

Tidsskrift

PLOS ONE
ISSN 1932-6203
e-ISSN 1932-6203
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2021
Publisert online: 2021
Volum: 16
Hefte: 9
Artikkelnummer: e0257007
Open Access

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85114703860

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Økologi • Landbruksfag

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

Sammendrag

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people reliant upon those crop species as food sources and for income generation. Macadamia is one of Malawi’s most important and profitable crop species; however, climate change threatens its production. Thus, this study’s objective is to quantitatively examine the potential impacts of climate change on the climate suitability for macadamia in Malawi. We utilized an ensemble model approach to predict the current and future (2050s) suitability of macadamia under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for macadamia (AUC = 0.9). The climatic variables that strongly influence macadamia’s climatic suitability in Malawi are suggested to be the precipitation of the driest month (29.1%) and isothermality (17.3%). Under current climatic conditions, 57% (53,925 km2) of Malawi is climatically suitable for macadamia. Future projections suggest that climate change will decrease the suitable areas for macadamia by 18% (17,015 km2) and 21.6% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with the distribution of suitability shifting northwards in the 2050s. The southern and central regions of the country will suffer the greatest losses (≥ 8%), while the northern region will be the least impacted (4%). We conclude that our study provides critical evidence that climate change will reduce the suitable areas for macadamia production in Malawi, depending on climate drivers. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience among producers.

Bidragsytere

Emmanuel Junior Zuza

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved The Open University Business School

Kadmiel Maseyk

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved The Open University Business School

Shonil A. Bhagwat

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved The Open University Business School
Aktiv cristin-person

Kaue de Sousa

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Italia
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Institutt for jordbruksfag ved Høgskolen i Innlandet

Andrew Emmott

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Storbritannia og Nord-Irland
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