Cristin-resultat-ID: 1946293
Sist endret: 10. februar 2022, 11:04
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2021
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2021

Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes

Bidragsytere:
  • Britt Bang Jensen
  • Katharine Rose Dean
  • Ragnar Bang Huseby
  • Magne Tommy Aldrin og
  • Lars Qviller

Tidsskrift

Epidemics
ISSN 1755-4365
e-ISSN 1878-0067
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2021
Publisert online: 2021
Volum: 37
Artikkelnummer: 100502
Open Access

Importkilder

Scopus-ID: 2-s2.0-85116114366

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes

Sammendrag

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease caused by Salmonid Alphavirus (SAV). It affects farmed salmonids in the North Atlantic, and leads to reduced feed intake and increased mortality with reduced production and welfare as a consequence. In 2013, the estimated cost of an outbreak on an average salmon farm was about 6.6 mil €. In Norway, PD has been notifiable since 2008, and regulations to mitigate disease spread are in place. However, despite the regulations, 140–170 farms are affected by PD every year. The aquaculture industry is growing continuously, introducing farms in new geographical areas, and fish are moved between hydrographically separated zones for trade and slaughter. All such movements and relocations need to be approved by the competent authorities. Thus, there is a demand for support to farmers and competent authorities when making decisions on disease management and especially on the effect of moving infected fish. We have used a disease-transmission model for outbreak-simulation in real time for assessing the probability of disease transmission from a farm that gets infected with PD. We have also simulated the effects of three different control-regimes: no stamping-out, delayed stamping-out or immediate stamping-out, on the transmission of PD to surrounding farms. Simulations showed that the immediate stamping out of an infected farm led to effective containment of an outbreak. No stamping out led to up to 32.1% of farms within 100 km of the index farm to become effected. We have used real production data for the model building and the scenario simulations, and the results illustrate that a risk assessment of horizontal disease transmission must be undertaken on a case-by-case basis, because the time and place of the outbreak has a large influence on the risk of transmission.

Bidragsytere

Inaktiv cristin-person

Britt Bang Jensen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Veterinærinstituttet

Katharine Rose Dean

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Veterinærinstituttet

Ragnar Bang Huseby

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for statistisk analyse og maskinlæring for brukermotiverte anvendelser SAMBA ved Norsk Regnesentral

Magne Tommy Aldrin

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for statistisk analyse og maskinlæring for brukermotiverte anvendelser SAMBA ved Norsk Regnesentral
Aktiv cristin-person

Lars Qviller

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Veterinærinstituttet
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