Sammendrag
Sea spray ice accretion is considered one of the significant obstacles to safe ship operation in the Arctic. An accurate model to estimate ice accumulation can make marine operations in the region safer and assist in designing efficient winterization techniques. The accuracy of the estimated ice accretion by the present ship-icing models is primarily dependent on the incoming spray flux generated by wave-ship interaction. The icing models use spray-flux estimations based on past empirical observations from mostly fishing trawlers. The incoming spray flux consists of the amount of liquid water (LWC), the duration and the distribution of the spray associated with surface impingement, and the spray generation frequency. This study aims to analyze the dependency of spray icing estimation models on LWC, which is one of the key parameters of spray flux. To achieve this, we consider a fishing vessel named ONEGA, which capsized and sank after experiencing heavy icing in the Barents Sea west of Yuzhny Island, Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, on 28 December 2020, claiming 17 lives. By assuming minimum vessel stability criteria prior to ice accretion, assuming the dimension of the vessel ONEGA, we identify the probable locations of accreted ice and estimate the likely amount of ice accumulation that destabilized the vessel. Then this is compared against the amount of ice accretion estimated by the MINCOG model. In order to highlight the dependency of MINCOG output on the LWC, an analysis is carried out using different liquid water content calculations proposed by researchers. In conclusion, a more realistic spray-flux formulation and considerations such as wind-generated spray flux may improve the icing estimations, ultimately emphasizing on real-times pray-flux measurements.
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