Avalanches in Scandinavia in a future climate

An index based on synoptic scale meteorological parameters is developed to link weather and avalanche frequency, using numerical simulations and avalanche observations in W-Norway. The index is used to estimate probable development of avalanche frequency in a scenario for future climate. The scenario indicates that at low elevations there will be a reduction in avalanche frequency, while at higher elevations there will either be a small change or a moderate increase in avalanche frequency.