Cristin-resultat-ID: 2010404
Sist endret: 17. mars 2022, 10:19
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2022

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Bidragsytere:
  • Daniele Vignoli
  • Alessandra Minello
  • Giacomo Bazzani
  • Camilla Matera og
  • Chiara Rapallini

Tidsskrift

European Journal of Population
ISSN 0168-6577
e-ISSN 1572-9885
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2022
Trykket: 2022
Volum: 38
Hefte: 1
Sider: 93 - 124

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Demografi • Sosiologi

Emneord

Fruktbarhet

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Sammendrag

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future—i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures—impact individuals’ decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Bidragsytere

Daniele Vignoli

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Firenze

Alessandra Minello

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Padova

Giacomo Bazzani

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Firenze

Camilla Matera

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Firenze
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

Chiara Rapallini

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Università degli Studi di Firenze
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