Cristin-resultat-ID: 421451
Sist endret: 28. oktober 2016, 16:37
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2004
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2004

Definition and estimation of an actual reproduction number describing past infectious disease transmission: application to HIV epidemics among homosexual men in Denmark, Norway and Sweden

Bidragsytere:
  • Ellen J Amundsen
  • Hein Stigum
  • John-Arne Røttingen og
  • Odd Olai Aalen

Tidsskrift

Epidemiology and Infection
ISSN 0950-2688
e-ISSN 1469-4409
NVI-nivå 1

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2004
Volum: 132
Sider: 1139 - 1149
Open Access

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Definition and estimation of an actual reproduction number describing past infectious disease transmission: application to HIV epidemics among homosexual men in Denmark, Norway and Sweden

Sammendrag

Prevalence and incidence measures are the common way to describe epidemics. The reproduction number supplies information on the potential for epidemical growth or decline. We define an actual reproduction number for infectious disease transmission that has taken place. An estimator is suggested, based on the number of new infections observed in a given time interval, the number of those infected at the start of the interval, and the length of the infectious period. That estimator is applied to HIV among men having sex with other men over the period, 1977-1995, in Scandinavia. The actual reproduction number was estimated with acceptable certainty from the period, 1981-82, yielding a value of 15 secondary cases. A value of less than one secondary case was assessed for the period, 1988-1995, in Denmark and Sweden. The actual reproduction number gives us some additional understanding of the dynamics of epidemics, compared with prevalence and incidence curves.

Bidragsytere

Aktiv cristin-person

Ellen Johanna Amundsen

Bidragsyterens navn vises på dette resultatet som Ellen J Amundsen
  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

Hein Stigum

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter

John-Arne Røttingen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Institutt for medisinske basalfag ved Universitetet i Oslo

Odd Olai Aalen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for biostatistikk ved Universitetet i Oslo
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