Cristin-resultat-ID: 976440
Sist endret: 28. oktober 2016 16:36
NVI-rapporteringsår: 2012
Resultat
Vitenskapelig artikkel
2013

A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

Bidragsytere:
  • Henrik Støvring
  • CG Harmsen
  • Torbjørn Wisløff
  • DE Jarbøl
  • Jørgen Nexøe
  • Jesper Bo Nielsen
  • mfl.

Tidsskrift

European Journal of Preventive Cardiology (EJPC)
ISSN 2047-4873
e-ISSN 2047-4881
NVI-nivå 2

Om resultatet

Vitenskapelig artikkel
Publiseringsår: 2013
Publisert online: 2012
Volum: 20
Hefte: 5
Sider: 827 - 836

Importkilder

Isi-ID: 000324383000015

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

Sammendrag

Background: The European Heart SCORE model constitutes the basis for national guidelines for primary prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in several European countries. The model estimates individuals’ 10-year CVD mortality risks from age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first re-estimated the cause-specific risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, and secondly we incorporated non-CVD mortality. Finally, non-CVD mortality was allowed to also depend on smoking status, and not only age and sex. From the models, we estimated CVD-specific and all-cause 10-year mortality risk, and the expected residual lifetime together with corresponding expected effects of statin treatment. Results: The modified model provided CVD-specific 10-year mortality risks similar to those of the European Heart SCORE model. Incorporation of non-CVD mortality increased 10-year mortality risks, in particular for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined for smokers, when smoking was allowed to influence non-CVD mortality. Conclusion: The modified model provides mathematically consistent estimates of mortality risk and expected residual lifetime together with expected benefits from statin treatment.

Bidragsytere

Henrik Støvring

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Aarhus Universitet

CG Harmsen

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Syddansk Universitet
Aktiv cristin-person

Torbjørn Wisløff

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for metodeutvikling og analyse ved Folkehelseinstituttet

DE Jarbøl

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Syddansk Universitet

Jørgen Nexøe

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Syddansk Universitet
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