Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 2504590
Sist endret: 30. november 2022, 15:02

Cristin-prosjekt-ID: 2504590
Sist endret: 30. november 2022, 15:02
Prosjekt

Permafrost ecosystems entangled with human life in Mongolia-evaluating the impact of land use change in a warming climate

prosjektleder

Sebastian Westermann
ved Seksjon for naturgeografi og hydrologi ved Universitetet i Oslo

prosjekteier / koordinerende forskningsansvarlig enhet

  • Institutt for geofag ved Universitetet i Oslo

Klassifisering

Vitenskapsdisipliner

Geofag

Emneord

Økosystem tjenester • Jordsystem modelling • Permafrost

Kategorier

Prosjektkategori

  • Grunnforskning

Kontaktinformasjon

Telefon
40599871
Sted
Sebastian Westermann

Tidsramme

Aktivt
Start: 16. februar 2021 Slutt: 31. desember 2024

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Permafrost ecosystems entangled with human life in Mongolia-evaluating the impact of land use change in a warming climate

Populærvitenskapelig sammendrag

Mongolia is a democratic country in Central Asia, located between the endless forests of Siberia to the North and the Gobi desert to the South. However, another largely invisible boundary runs straight across Mongolia: the boundary between permafrost and permafrost-free areas.

In the Permafrost4Life project, we will investigate how permafrost is entangled with ecosystems and the traditional herder lifestyle that is an important element of the Mongolian society. In the permafrost-dominated regions, the density of livestock is by far highest due to more abundant water sources and more productive ecosystems. However, the exact role of the permafrost is not entirely clear which raises concerns in the context of climate change which leads permafrost to warm and disappear at an alarming rate. Permafrost can for example provide water from melting ground ice in the dry summer season, but it can also preventing rainwater from infiltrating deep in the ground so that it remains accessible for plants.

In Permafrost4Life, we work closely with Mongolian researchers to find out more about the function of permafrost in the “ecological wall against desertification” and to what extent this wall could become vulnerable in the future. For this purpose, we will combine field experiments and remote sensing to develop new numerical ecosystem models which can represent both the permafrost and human land use, in particular grazing and forestry.

Permafrost4Life is a unique collaboration between Mongolian and Norwegian research institutions, which is strongly connected to the local population that will experience the impacts of climate change in the future. Our goal is to make the new knowledge created in the project available to improve policy-making and land use management in both Mongolia and Central Asia.

Vitenskapelig sammendrag

Central Asia is one of the very few areas in the world were ecosystems and human life are heavily entangled with the Cryosphere, with a continental climate favoring the occurrence of permafrost. About one third of Mongolian municipalities are located in permafrost areas, and the density of  livestock is by far highest in permafrost-dominated regions. This is due to more abundant water sources, thus sustaining a traditional, semi-nomadic lifestyle for about 30% of the population of Mongolia, while also supplying food to the growing urban centers. Permafrost provides water from melting ground ice in the dry summer season, or by preventing rainwater from infiltrating into deeper layers, thus leaving it available for plant growth. Increases in temperature have led to ongoing and well-documented degradation of permafrost, while strong increases of both population and livestock (> 60 million animals) in the recent decade put ecosystems in Mongolia under additional pressure from grazing and deforestation. With both changes accelerating in the recent decade, the delicate balance between climate forcing, ecosystem response and human land use has come under threat. In strong contrast, there is little quantitative knowledge how the sensitive ecosystems will react to these multi-source stresses, leaving risks for irreversible changes that will complicate sustainable land use in the future. Permafrost4Life aims at a better understanding and quantification of climate-ecosystem interaction, with a special focus on the role of the ground thermal regime within this interplay. The ultimate goal is to use this knowledge to help policy-making and land use management, with experiences stretching far outside Mongolia. To reach these goals we will use field experiments and state-of the art land system models. Permafrost4Life is a collaboration between research institutions from Norway and Mongolia, emphasizing the full equality of the research partners.

Metode

Permafrost4Life develops model-based frameworks that can elucidate and predict the role of permafrost for the water cycle and stream flow in semi-arid regions in Central Asia. Furthermore, we investigate the links  between ecosystem productivity and the ground thermal regime, including presence of permafrost. WIth such models developed, we conduct model-based evaluations of climate-dependent thresholds in grazing and logging intensity beyond which permafrost degradation is likely to occur.

In Permafrost4Life, two main model tools are used. Firstly, the CryoGrid community permafrost model is a land surface model oprimised for cold environments. In Permafrost4Life, we add coupling to a vegetation layer, in particular forest canopies, to the model, which is critical for shading of the ground and the presence of permafrost. CryoGrid has unique capabilities for three-dimensional model setups, and in Permafrost4Life, we will simulate the impact of climate change on the the hydrology of small catchments (with and without permafrost). Secondly, the "Community Land Model" (CLM) is used to simulate the impact of grazing on the ground thermal regime, water cycle and exosystem productivity. CLM is a part of the Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM, and Permafrost4Life develops a new grazing module which can become part of operational climate change simulations after the project. All model simulations are validated by field measurements which are conducted at different sites in Mongolia.

Utstyr

For field measurements, we use a variety of equipment to characterize the different aspects of the envirnmental system. To evaluate leaf area index, a fisheye camera ist used, which takes images of the entire field of view. Ground surface temperature (GST) is a critical variable, which integrates all aspects of the surface energy balance and is in particular sensitive to the availability of water. To measure GST, we use miniature temperature loggers (either iButtons or Hobo Pendant loggers) which can be deployed close to the surface. Furthermore, automatic weather stations have been placed at the main field sites to provide reliable data for the key meteorological parameters which are required as input for the modeling. 

prosjektdeltakere

prosjektleder

Sebastian Westermann

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektleder
    ved Seksjon for naturgeografi og hydrologi ved Universitetet i Oslo

Matvey Debolskiy

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved NORCE Klima og miljø ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Robin Benjamin Zweigel

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Seksjon for naturgeografi og hydrologi ved Universitetet i Oslo

Hanna Lee

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved NORCE Klima og miljø ved NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS

Bernd Etzelmüller

  • Tilknyttet:
    Prosjektdeltaker
    ved Seksjon for naturgeografi og hydrologi ved Universitetet i Oslo
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Resultater Resultater

Sensitivity of ecosystem-protected permafrost under changing boreal forest structures.

Stuenzi, Simone M.; Boike, Julia; Gadeke, Anne; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kruse, Stefan; Pestryakova, Luidmila A.; Westermann, Sebastian; Langer, Moritz. 2021, Environmental Research Letters. HzB, AWI, RUSSLAND, UIO, UP, TYSKLANDVitenskapelig artikkel
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