Sustainable Development of the Arctic Ocean (SUDARCO)

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climate change. As the region warms and sea ice retreats, previously inaccessible areas are becoming accessible. New economic prospects are being unveiled, paving the way for increased commercial activity, which has potential to create new economic value for Norway.  Expectations of increased human activity create the need for an updated approach to governance with a holistic, integrative and adaptive approach. Changes in the ice cover, water column structure and composition have already affected the ecosystem in the Arctic Ocean. Our current understanding is outdated and needs updating to enable effective management and adaptation based on a state-of-the-art understanding of the ecosystem and its response to the changing environment. Although the Arctic is warming, it remains an extreme environment; cold, dark and ice-covered for much of the year, making comprehensive studies extremely challenging. To maximise relevance for Norwegian management and policy development, this project will focus on the western ends of the Nansen and Amundsen Basins in the area north of Svalbard and Greenland, hereafter referred to as the ‘Focus Area’

We have identified three key knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to allow sustainable development within our Focus Area as follows:

1.         How accessible are the different parts of the Focus Area today and how will this change? 

2.         What is valuable and what is vulnerable in the Focus Area? 

3.         What regulation exists in the Focus Area today, will it be adequate in the future and how can it be changed?

A good knowledge of the Focus Area is a prerequisite for its sustainable development. Our first priority is to establish a basic understanding of the ice conditions, the structure of the water column and ecosystem. This is primarily achieved via WPs 1-4, which will explore the natural environment using new satellite data products to investigate the sea ice cover and new measurements from cruises and the proposed in-situ observing system to understand the ocean. Information about current ship activates (WP6) and observations of the changing ice conditions (WP1) will tell us much about the accessibility of the Focus Area.

An improved understanding of the environment and ecosystem, together with an overview of the human activity occurring today and estimates of navigability will reveal what is valuable in the Focus Area. This is primarily assessed is WP6, which will compare ship activity and information gained from stakeholder interviews with the findings of WPs 1-4.   To assess vulnerability, we must evaluate possible future scenarios. Together WPs 1-4 will provide information about the distribution of nutrients, carbon and contaminants in the ocean and ecosystem. A modelling work package (WP5) will simulate how these move though the ocean and ecosystem today and together with WPs 1-4 evaluate how future changes in the physical environment may affect the ecosystem and sea ice cover.WP8 will provide an integrated ecosystem assessment summarising the finding in a format which is accessible to a general audience.

WP7 has the task of evaluating the extant legislation and whether it is adequate to protect what is valuable and vulnerable. We foresee that the diverse range of scientific disciplines needed to answer the overarching questions in this project means that not all WPs will not be able to readily make use of all the output from other WPs published in the form of peer-reviewed articles. To address this, all WPs will publish key findings in the form of Fram Forum articles written at a level that is accessible to experts in other disciplines. Two integrative work-packages (6 and 8) will provide an important bridge, translating natural science findings in to more accessible formats such as summary reports and policy briefs which will be accessible to WP7 and to our major stakeholders. WP6 and WP8 will arrange specific stakeholder workshops throughout the project, beginning already in Q2 2022. These meetings will be attended by representatives of all WPs and will be central to ensuring that project activities are well aligned with stakeholder needs.