PERMANOR: Permafrost landscapes in transformation - from local-scale processes to the global model NorESM

The research project PERMANOR - "Permafrost landscapes in transformation - from local-scale processes to the global model NorESM" aims at increasing our knowledge on the role of permafrost in the global climate system. Permafrost soils contain large amounts of organic material that is protected from microbial decomposition in the frozen ground, similar to a gigantic freezer.

In a future warmer world, thawing of permafrost is expected to occur, so that this organic material could be partially decomposed and trigger a massive release of greenhouse to the atmosphere. The additional warming potential of this so-called “permafrost-carbon feedback” is so far not well captured in Earth System Models (ESMs) used for climate predictions, including the Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM.

PERMANOR brings together experts from the Department of Geociences at the University of Oslo, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen and the German Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research to investigate the highly dynamic evolution of permafrost landscapes in the light of ESM development. Rapid changes of permafrost landscapes are in many cases related to thawing ice-rich ground which can for instance transform dry and well-drained permafrost ground into a wetland within only a few years, as currently observed in mire areas in Northern Norway.

In PERMANOR, we will make use of extensive field observations in Norway, Svalbard and Siberia to better include such processes in NorESM climate simulations. The improved representation of permafrost landscape dynamics in NorESM will lead to reducing our uncertainty in the predictability of future climate change.