Stakeholder driven future scenarios as an element of interdisciplinary management tools; the case of future offshore aquaculture development and the potential effects on fishermen in Santa Barbara, California

The following article discusses how to elicit quantitative stakeholder driven scenarios as an output for use in interdisciplinary policy models using Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Network conjointly in a workshop setting. The usefulness of this joint method was tested on a core group of stakeholders that would likely be impacted if offshore aquaculture were to be developed in Santa Barbara, California, namely the commercial fishermen. The workshop elicited several scenarios describing stakeholder perceived notions of how offshore aquaculture could impact their industry. This joint method is a new method of developing future scenarios. These can in turn be used to develop more encompassing and interdisciplinary foresight models, early warning systems, for managers in different management areas. Models can thereby include human perception and comprehensive and quantitative scenarios by delimiting the variable paths toward each stakeholder driven scenario as additional elements in a comprehensive policy foresight recommendation tool.