International regime analyses in the northeast Atlantic

The zooplankton redfeed may need an international management regime in the future. An optimal resource regime from Norway’s point of view has already been hypothesized Tiller (J Environ Dev 19 (2):191–214, 2010). We expand on this hypothesis and analyze the regime preferences of other interested states: Russia, Iceland and the EU. These states will all react and respond differently to the advent of a new resource in the Northeast Atlantic and have different policy interests to bring to the negotiation table than the initiator Norway. One cannot analyze international regimes without fully comprehending the perspectives of other actors involved. It is therefore critical to look at the issues and concerns that are likely to arise on the international arena during regime negotiations and develop scenarios that account for the possible events that could materialize at that stage. This could potentially produce a more predictable end scenario in the case of the future redfeed regime, especially for Norway. In explaining this, we sketch four possible future scenarios, and proceed with discussing them in light of the potential preferences of the key actors involved. Given the enticing nature of studying a regime that has not yet materialized, the case of redfeed in the Northeast Atlantic is explored and discussed from the vantage point of actors whose cooperation with Norway is critical for the successful future operationalization of the international management regime for redfeed, namely Russia, Iceland, and the EU. Using regime formation theory and scenario analysis, mapping out the future negotiation stage of the regime formation process is undertaken. The article argues that Norway’s role as a driver for the development of this regime will steer the negotiation process and ensure the outcome that is most beneficial for Norway, with Russia acquiescent rather than aggressive.