The crisis of the mid- to late 1980s in Southern Africa

This paper looks at the crisis of the mid- to late 1890s in the eastern part of southern Africa, when the intertwined factors of drought, locusts, and cattle plague resulted first in a severe decline in agricultural production, followed by the massive loss rates of cattle due to Rinderpest. The crisis is analysed by applying the principles of historical climatology; spatial extension and the temporal sequence of the events of the crisis are considered with the help of instrumental rainfall observations, and where instrumental data are scarce or non-existent, with information derived from documentary sources. The potential influence of a sequence of strong El-Niño conditions during this period are investigated; a major El-Niño event coincided with extreme drought conditions in southern Africa in 1896. Impacts on the agricultural and pastoral sectors - measurable in terms of harvest quantity, cultivated acreage, numbers of cattle, and food prices - as well as consequences of the crisis for migratory movements, wages, or the transport sector are studied using a wide variety of quantitative data assembled in the Blue Books for the British colonies in southern Africa, the Cape Colony, and Natal. These statistical compilations also include records concerning the "Native Lands" at the eastern edge of the Cape Colony. These generally hitherto unused colonial statistics are supplemented by qualitative information from narrative evidence such as missionary reports and correspondence or newspaper articles. Coping strategies and recovery rates can partly be obtained from the sources; in this respect it is of interest to see whether these differ for farmers of European descent and indigenous people.