East-West Relations in the High North: Challenges and Opportunities

The general deterioration of Russia’s relationship with the West, particularly after the country’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine, has had, and will likely continue to have, a negative impact on the security situation in the eastern border regions of northern, central, and southern Europe. Russia’s naval and air force presence is on the increase in all of the country’s northern and western maritime frontier regions. This is also reflected in the number and severity of "close military encounters" between Russian and Western forces since 2014. Still, the security situation in the Barents Sea region appears to be less tense and more predictable than the security situation in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. Norway has been able to preserve a significant degree of practical cooperation with Russia in the High North, despite the freeze in military-to-military contacts. Further steps may be taken to reduce the likelihood of a Russian-Western military confrontation in Europe.