The Building up of Russia’s Military Potential in the Arctic Region and Possible Elements of its Deterrence

The security environment in the Arctic has undergone significant changes in recent years, as have the dynamics of Russia’s relationship with the West. Since 2008, Russia has invested heavily in the modernization of its armed forces. Many of the new capabilities, including some that are designed specifically for operations in the Arctic, were showcased at the Victory Day parade in May 2017. The country’s military presence and activity in the Arctic has grown in scope, scale, and geographic reach. Russia’s military actions in other parts of the world, most notably in Ukraine since 2014, have had a distinctly negative impact on Russia’s relations with the West and created new security concerns also for the country’s northern neighbors. Within NATO, renewed attention is being paid to "the Russia factor" and to the emerging military security challenges on the northern flank of the Alliance. Faced with the reality of growing Russian military capabilities in the Arctic, including the nuclear and conventional naval forces based on the Kola Peninsula, NATO needs to make clear that it is prepared to invest in its own defense capabilities and ensure that NATO’s own deterrence is credible.