Cristin-resultat-ID: 1615848
Sist endret: 13. februar 2019, 14:44
Resultat
Rapport
2018

Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Bidragsytere:
  • Martin Jullum
  • Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir og
  • Fabian Bachl

Utgiver/serie

Utgiver

Norsk Regnesentral

Serie

NR-notat

Om resultatet

Rapport
Publiseringsår: 2018
Hefte: SAMBA/04/18
Antall sider: 25

Beskrivelse Beskrivelse

Tittel

Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Sammendrag

The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) and hooded seals (Cystophora cristata). An estimate of the annual seal pup production is a critical factor in the abundance estimation needed for management of the species. Estimates of seal pup production are usually based on counts from aerial photographic surveys. However, due to the large extent of typical whelping regions, only a minor part of the complete area can be photographed. To estimate the total seal pup production, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach motivated by viewing the seal pup appearances as a realization of a log-Gaussian Cox process using covariate information from satellite imagery as a proxy for ice-thickness. For inference, we utilize the spatial partial differential equation (SPDE) module of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. In a case study using survey data from 2012, we compare our results with existing methodology in a comprehensive cross-validation study. The new proposed method improves local estimation performance and more accurately addresses the associated uncertainty.

Bidragsytere

Martin Jullum

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for statistisk analyse og maskinlæring for brukermotiverte anvendelser SAMBA ved Norsk Regnesentral

Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Avdeling for statistisk analyse og maskinlæring for brukermotiverte anvendelser SAMBA ved Norsk Regnesentral

Fabian Bachl

  • Tilknyttet:
    Forfatter
    ved Tyskland
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