Use of discovery process modelling in Arctic Resource Assessment

A Bayesian version of the discovery process model has been tested in a Play from the Barents Sea. The Bayesian approach estimates the lognormal parameters, the discoverability parameter, and the distribution of sizes of the undiscovered fields as well as the play potential, conditioned on a discovery sequence averaging over all possible prior choices weighted by their likelihood. This approach avoids the problem of having to make arbitrary choices for the parameters. The estimates of parameters and play potential based upon the present methodology compares well with previous estimate using more traditional play assessments. References Chen, Z., 1993, Quantification of petroleum resources through sampling from a parent population and as a function of basin yield: unpubl. Doctoral dissertation, Norwegian Institute of Technology, 223p. Chen, Z., Singding-Larsen, R., and Ma, X., 1997, Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China: Nonrenewable Resources, v.6, no.4, p.317-328. Lee, P. J., 1993, Two decades of Geological Survey of Canada petroleum resource assessments, Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, vol.30, p.321-332. Lee, P. J. and Wang, P. C. C., 1983, Probabilistic formulation of a method for the evaluation of petroleum resources: Jour. Math. Geol., v.15, no.1, p.163-181. Lee, P. J., and Wang, P. C. C., 1985, Prediction of oil and gas pool sizes when discovery record is available: Jour. Math. Geol., v.17, no.2, p.95-113. Lee, P. J., and Wang, P. C. C., 1986, Evaluation of petroleum resources from pool size distributions, in Rice, D., ed., Oil and gas assessment � Methods and applications, AAPG studies in geology no. 21: Tulsa, Oklahoma, p.33-42. Meisner, J., and Demiren, F., 1981, The creaming method: A Bayesian procedure to forecast future oil and gas discoveries in mature exploration provinces, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A, vol. 144, p.1-31. Sinding-Larsen, R., and Chen, Z., 1996, Cross-validation of resource estimates from discovery process modeling and volumetric accumulation modeling: example from the Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the Halten Terrance, offshore Norway, in Dore, A. G. and Sinding-Larsen, R., eds., Quantitative prediction and evaluation of petroleum resources: New York, Elsevier, p.105-114. Smith, J. L., and Ward, G. L., 1981, Maximum likelihood estimates of the size distribution of North Sea oil fields: Jour. Math. Geol., v.13, no.3, p.399-413. Stone, L. D., 1990, Bayesian estimation of undiscovered pool sizes using the discovery record, Jour. Math. Geol., v.22, no.3, p.309-332.