Sammendrag
While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and
recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global
heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement,
for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability
conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in
2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be
greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high
development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However,
the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and
very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized
below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.
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