Sammendrag
Meeting internationally agreed climate targets requires reductions in fossil fuel use at rates that are historically unprecedented for the global energy sector and that are certain to affect employment. While jobs may be replaced and unemployment recede in the long run, energy sector contractions may cause substantial medium-term pain to specific regions and specific parts of the workforce. However, the political effects of energy sector contractions have not to our knowledge been systematically studied. Here I ask how fossil fuel workers react politically in times of crisis. Using data from the 2014-17 oil downturn in Norway, during which up to 20 percent of sector jobs were lost, I show that citizens employed in petroleum displayed greater support for the populist right and to the traditional labor party while reducing their support for the conservative party. This suggests a change in preferences either toward fewer restrictions on new drilling and/or general anti-establishment protest (populist right) or toward greater safety in the welfare state (traditional labor). These results demonstrate how concentrated pain may have political consequences that could affect both the quality of democracy and the low-carbon transition. Future studies on this topic could provide additional details on the success and failure of energy transitions and clarify the role of labor unions, welfare states, and electoral systems.
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