A prognosis for Sámi in Norway: Schools as key to revitalization

The paper presents three different prognoses for the future number of Sámi language users in Norway based on the contemporary number of children receiving instruction in Sámi in the Norwegian school system, either North, Lule or South Sámi. There exist three different curricula for the subject Sámi, one for first language pupils (Sámi 1), one for second language pupils (Sámi 2), and one for foreign language pupils (Sámi 3). Depending on whether only Sámi pupils become future language users, or also Sámi 2 or even Sámi 3 pupils do so, a sober, moderate, and optimistic prognosis, respectively, can be made. The sober prognosis predicts a dramatic decrease in North Sámi and slight decrease in the other two varieties, whereas the moderate prognosis predicts stability for North Sámi and increase for Lule and South Sámi, and the optimistic prognosis predicts an increase for all three varieties. A number of factors that are likely to modulate the prognoses are brought to attention and discussed, unveiling that more information is needed on several issues relating to the future of the Sámi languages in Norway.