Sammendrag
Agricultural sector is an important part of the anthropogenic land use change which plays a prominent
role in stabilizing global mean temperature rise to 2 °C or less. Changes in the extent and magnitude
of local-to-regional climate by agriculture evolution are still not explored. In this study, we simulate
and analyze the climate response to different ranges of agricultural area changes with a regional
climate model (WRF v.3.9.1) in EURO-CORDEX (European branch of the international Coordinated
Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-CORDEX initiative) domain. Different experiments are
envisioned in this study, including a control run and simulations based on idealized extensive cropland
loss or cropland gain. The simulations also include more realistic agricultural area changes across
different land cover classes. The investigated parameters will be the changes of temperature,
precipitation, and frequency of temperature extremes at both the entire EURO-CORDEX domain
(regional scale) and the changed grids (local scale). Results will also be compared to observation data
gathered from satellite retrievals. In the grid cell affected by land cover change, we expect to find
climate changes that are more significant than in non-affected areas. A latitudinal pattern and seasonal
variability should also emerge. Of particular interest will be the understanding of the spatial patterns
of the climate response to the transition between cropland and other types of land cover changes,
their sensitivity to space and location, and the analysis of possible correlations with different kinds of
cropland and climate parameters. As biophysical effects from agriculture evolution shape European
climate in different ways, further developments and better understanding of land-climate interactions
can ultimately assist decision makers to modulate land management strategies at different scales in
light of climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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