The Peaks Over Threshold Method and Bootstrapping for Estimating Long Return Period Design Values

The paper investigates the application of the peaks over threshold (POT) method in combination with the bootstrapping method for estimating long return period characteristic values of environmental loads, e.g. wind loads, on the basis of observed data. In particular, attention is focused on the effect that different statistical estimators of the parameters inherent in the POT method have on the predicted characteristic values. The accuracy of the predicted long return period characteristic values provided by the different methods will be evaluated by application to synthetic data where the relevant characteristic values can be calculated. The bootstrapping method is advocated as a practical tool for the estimation of confidence intervals on the provided point estimates of the long return period values.