Patterns of Conflict: Towards Civilizational Clashes? Civilizational Differences and Intrastate Conflicts, 1979-98

Huntington’s controversial ‘clash of civilizations-thesis’ suggests that with the end of the Cold War we are witnessing a new pattern of conflict, which is formed by cultural dissimilarities. This is true for both inter- and intrastate conflict. This study tests the validity of Huntington’s claims by examining the relationship between civilizations and intrastate conflict in the period 1979-98. The findings suggest that civilizational differences in general have a limited effect on the incidence of intrastate conflicts, large or small. However, several of the Islamic fault lines contribute to conflict, including the Western-Islamic one. These differences have become slightly more important in the post-Cold War era. Nevertheless, political and economic factors are far more important in predicting the pattern of conflict, than civilizational differences are, whether during or after the Cold War.