The Pattern of Conflict in the Age of Globalism: Do Cultural Differences Divide? Civilizational Differences and Intrastate Conflicts, 1979-98

Huntington’s controversial ‘clash of civilizations-thesis’ suggests that with the end of the Cold War we are witnessing a new pattern of conflict, which is formed by cultural dissimilarities. This is true for both inter- and intrastate conflict. One of the major forces behind this, Huntington claims, is the process of globalization and modernization throughout the world, which has increased people’s awareness of cultural differences. This study tests the validity of Huntington’s claims by examining the relationship between civilizations and intrastate conflict in the period 1979-98. The findings suggest that civilizational differences in general have a limited effect on the incidence of intrastate conflicts, large or small. However, several of the Islamic fault lines contribute to conflict, including the Western-Islamic one. These differences have become slightly more important in the post-Cold War era. The most important factors predicting internal armed conflicts are political and economic factors. This is true both during and after the Cold War.