Norwegian natural gas exports and EU Climate Plans

For a long time, the decarbonisation targets and policies of the EU have been seen as good news for natural gas. However, the introduction of increasingly stringent long-term emissions reduction targets are calling into question the medium-to-long term prospects of such a commodity in Europe, as gas demand is foreseen to stabilise in the EU-27 over the coming decade, to fall abruptly as of 2030. Such a dynamic is likely to affect several natural gas exporters in the EU’s neighbourhood. For these countries, the energy relations with the EU are important on economic, political, social and ideational grounds. The effect of decarbonisation on a key export good entails a significant change in an important aspect in these countries’ bilateral relations with the EU. How does the future look for these countries’ resources as their main customer accelerates its decarbonisation plans? Is Europe’s energy transition likely to trigger a re-orientation in the hydrocarbon exporters’ foreign policy and commercial strategies? And what does this mean for the EU’s energy and climate diplomacy in its Eastern and Southern neighbourhood?”