LGBT+ Tolerance: Assessing the Impact of Judicial Decisions and Social Campaigns in Africa

LGBT+ individuals in some countries are enjoying the gradual expansion of civil liberties and fundamental protections, but in many other countries they are experiencing increasing government repression and social sanctions. In this context, it remains unclear to what extent popular attitudes are conditioned by the decisions of state institutions like courts or the social campaigns of civil society organizations – in either conservative or liberal directions. We assess such dynamics through a three-wave panel survey conducted among a nationally representative sample of Kenyans throughout 2019. Respondents were asked about their attitudes toward LGBT+ individuals, including criminal penalties and social sanctions, before and after Kenya’s High Court issued a decision upholding the country’s anti-sodomy law. Respondents were also randomly exposed to informational and empathy treatments modeled after those employed by LGBT+ rights organizations in Kenya. We find that information and empathy treatments focused on LGBT+ individuals can have some sizable short-term effects consistent with prejudice reduction, but these effects do not persist beyond the single survey round. Furthermore, after the High Court issued its conservative ruling, we find that respondents were no less likely to exhibit prejudicial attitudes towards LGBT+ individuals even when nudged to recall their experiences with the information and perspective-taking treatments. Taken together, our findings provide evidence for the limits of social campaigns in promoting prejudice-reducing interventions.