Developing early warning systems for land degradation around refugee camps: a preliminary approach

The joint research initiative of H2020 EOTiST and ARICA projects aims to better understand the ecosystem conditions around refugee camps and evaluate the capability of Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFA) as early warning indicators of ecosystem degradation. The analysis is based on Sentinel-2 optical satellite data and derived geospatial products for the period 2016-2022, reference data collected during the field campaign in 2022, and information gathered during interviews with local authorities and NGOs. The study area is the Mtendeli Refugee Camp (MRC), Kigoma region, Tanzania. The MRC was established over 30 years ago, in close proximity to the 6 000 km2 Moyowosi Game Reserve, an environmentally fragile area. It was reopened in 2015 at a nearby location and closed in December 20211. The proposed approach consists of quantitative and qualitative temporal analysis of the ecosystem for the period 2016-2022 to assess anthropogenic impact on the camp surroundings. Firstly, the temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity in NDVI seasonal dynamics are derived from EFA2. Secondly, Ecosystem Functional Types (EFT)3 are calculated for the same timeframe. Special attention is paid to the disturbances and anomalies in NDVI dynamics. In addition to the results of the spatio-temporal analysis, the context for the demonstrated changes was presented with reference to field research and expert knowledge. This approach, complemented with changes in land cover/use, may result in a protocol for early warning system, monitoring and evaluation of the refugee camp surroundings, supporting decisionmaking on mitigation of environment degradation.