Future transitions for the Bioeconomy in small and medium farming systems in Norway

The bioeconomy is an important construct to address major societal challenges. Sometimes also referred to as bio-based economy, the bioeconomy refers to a world where majority of goods (food, clothes, energy) are generated from renewable biological resources. In 2016 the Norwegian government publish its bioeconomy strategy with the aim of maximising the usage of biological resources to create economic value and reduce waste and pollution. Norwegian agriculture has experienced a shift towards industrialisation in recent years seeing a steady declined on the number of traditional small to medium scale family farms. In contemporary Norwegian agriculture, few people generally subsist on income from farming. The current momentum towards the bioeconomy outlined in the 2016 government strategy can either offer opportunities to revert these trends or accelerate the extinction of these farming systems. In this paper we address this issue by exploring dynamics driving (or hindering) and generated by transition pathways towards the bioeconomy. Recognising that a transition the scale needed to develop the bioeconomy typically calls for massive and coordinated policy efforts covering a multitude of policy areas (e.g. innovation, land usage, taxation) we take a systems perspective. Using a small system dynamics conceptual model, we explore potential mechanisms that might hamper or accelerate the adoption of technologies, development of circular business models and creation of key capabilities and their effects on existing rural and small family farms. Using biofuel production as an example of potential biotechnologies we use the initial conceptual model to identify an initial set of feedback loops and capabilities that would need to be investigated further to understand opportunities and challenges of bioeconomy transitions. Using these preliminary results, we outline a research agenda for system thinking and system dynamics research agenda and propose a series of research questions to investigate.