MSW for energy recovery - 2020-2035 Scenarios for a large city

The generation rate, total amount and composition of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) can be affected by many parameters such as population and economy growth, unfolding of Circular Economy, implementation of new regulations for material recycling and development of sorting and recycling technology. Such changes will also affect measures to treat/utilize the MSW as well as the handling of the residues, primarily ashes. In this work, three scenarios on the future MSW sent to energy recovery for the period 2020-2035 have been developed using detailed MSW composition data from a large Scandinavian city, namely Oslo, Norway. The amount and composition of the MSW sent to energy recovery (incineration) were estimated with consideration of boundary conditions including population growth, improvement of sorting efficiency and increase of recycling rate. This work also evaluated key properties of the MSW sent to energy recovery under different scenarios, including heating value, volatile matter and carbon content and concentration of key ash-forming elements relevant to the operation of an incinerator and ash valorisation. The results revealed that important combustion properties of MSW to incineration might be affected by increased sorting and recycling, towards lower energy and ash content with the conditions set under studied scenarios. Scenario analysis revealed that changes in the fraction of plastic has the largest effect on the carbon content and heating value of the MSW. In addition, changes in the content of ash-forming elements in the MSW were identified, which are the results of the separate collection of an ash-rich subfraction, i.e., food waste.