Good and Simple: A dilemma in Analytical Processes?

The quality of decisions relating to projects depends on how well they fit the reality of the situation in which the consequences occur. Good value and cost estimations support good decisions about projects insofar as the assumptions on which they are based mirror the reality. Accordingly, it is common procedure to conduct analyses of risk or uncertainty relating to cost estimates. There is an apparent dilemma embedded in the processes used to analyse uncertainty and risks associated with projects. On the one hand, an important task is to reduce the complexity of a given situation to render the issues sufficiently simple for them to be understood and assessed. On the other hand, the models and assumptions upon which an analysis is based have to be sufficiently precise and detailed in order to make sense. The same dilemma is found when considering actions to address the risks and uncertainties, as well as in designing management systems. It is concluded that the dilemma is real, but solutions have to be found among both good and simple options. Practical examples are given.