Predictors of unrealistic optimism: a study of Norwegian risk takers

In areas of voluntary risk behaviour, as with other kinds of risk, people tend to be overly optimistic regarding not being injured. A study of risk perception and causal explanations of injury assessments was conducted on 199 respondents from three different sub-groups in Norway; skydivers (n588), fire fighters (n573) and soldiers (n538). Unrealistic optimism was studied by means of four demographic variables: the background of the subject (subsample), gender, age, and education. In addition, three predictors of unrealistic optimism were taken into account�safety attitudes, control, and anxiety. These predictors were included in an Analysis of Linear Structural Relationship (LISREL) analysis. The results showed that optimism differed between the sub-groups, and that different factors influenced risk perception depending on the group and depending on whether the assessment was of oneself or of others. These findings offers additional information that will help explain the inconsistent findings in the current literature of unrealistic optimism. Of the predictors investigated, safety attitudes were found to be the most important, which may be because respondents preoccupied with safety are more aware of potential dangers and thereby less optimistic. KEY WORDS: risk takers; unrealistic optimism; optimistic bias; safety attitudes; control