Interaction between seasonal density-dependence structures and length of the seasons explain the geographical structure of the dynamics of voles in Hokkaido: an example of seasonal forcing

The grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) is distributed over the entire island of Hokkaido, Japan, across which it exhibits multi-annual density cycles in only parts of the island (the north-eastern part); in the remaining part of the island, only seasonal density changes occur. Using annual sampling of 189 grey-sided vole populations, we deduced the geographical structure in their second-order density dependence. Building upon our earlier suggestion, we deduce the seasonal density-dependent structure for these populations. Strong direct and delayed density dependence is found to occur during winter, whereas no density dependence is seen during the summer period. The direct density dependence during winter may be seen as a result of food being limited during that season: the delayed density dependence during the winter is consistent with vole-specialized predators (e.g. the least weasel) responding to vole densities so as to have a negative effect on the net growth rate of voles in the following year. We conclude that the observed geographical structure of the population dynamics may be properly seen as a result of the length of the summer in interaction with the differential seasonal density-dependent structure. Altogether, this indicates that the geographical pattern in multi-annual density dynamics in the grey-sided vole may be a result of seasonal forcing.