Tool-Supported Risk Modeling and Analysis of Evolving Critical Infrastructures

Risk management is coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk, and includes the identification, analysis and mitigation of unacceptable risks. For critical infrastructures consisting of interdependent systems, risk analysis and mitigation is challenging because the overall risk picture can be strongly affected by changes in only a few of the systems. In order to continuously manage risks and maintain an adequate level of protection, there is a need to continuously maintain the validity of risk models while systems change and evolve. This paper presents a risk analysis tool that supports the modeling and analysis of changing and evolving risks. The tool supports the traceability of system changes to risk models, as well as the explicit modeling of the impact on the risk picture. The tool, as well as the underlying risk analysis method, is exemplified and validated in the domain of air traffic management.