Shipping needs 85% GHG cuts by 2050 if seen as a nation

If the shipping industry was treated as a sovereign nation, it would need to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 85%, from 2010 levels, by 2050 say researchers at Norway’s Marintek. The research group estimates that maritime transport emissions, which currently contribute about 3% of the world’s manmade GHG total, might rise by 150% to 250% amid an expected tripling of world trade by 2050. In a just-published study titled “state-of-the-art technologies, measures, and potential for reducing GHG emissions from shipping — a review”, Marintek says one approach would be to consider the shipping sector as a “sovereign nation making fair and proportionate contributions to emissions budgets”. To fulfil international commitments on climate change, that nation would have to cut its GHG emissions up to 2050 by at least 85% relative to 2010. The CO2 emissions per unit of freight carried would have to be slashed from around 25 grams to four grams of CO2 per tonne-nautical mile — a reduction by a factor of five to six. Co-author H Elizabeth Lindstad says the aim of the overview of almost 150 studies describing CO2 reduction potentials and measures was to identify the most promising technologies and operational practices, and quantify their combined mitigation probability. Based on current technologies, the researchers conclude it is possible to reduce emissions by 75% — a factor of four to six per freight unit transported — by 2050. “Significant reduction potentials can be achieved by swift adoption and combination of a large number of individual measures,” Lindstad said. However, no single measure is enough on its own. “Policies, regulations and legislation, such as the EEDI [Energy Efficiency Design Index], can facilitate reduction of GHG emissions but successful implementation has to be supported by high-quality studies addressing multiple effects and measures simultaneously in order to avoid counteracting and inefficient adoption of mitigation measures,” the review said. Shipping needs 85% GHG cuts by 2050 if seen as a nation | TradeWinds Page 1 of 2 http://www.tradewindsnews.com/weekly/1262164/shipping-needs-85-percent-ghg-cut... 23.05.2017 It notes that increasingly tough threshold values in the EEDI will help lower emissions but the only way to satisfy the requirements will be improved vessel design, power systems or adopting low-carbon fuels. At its recent annual general meeting in Istanbul, International Chamber of Shipping chairman Esben Poulsson said: “The long-term future of the industry, like the rest of the world economy, must eventually be fossil- fuel free. The trajectory for getting there, not least the development of alternative fuels, could well take us several decades. But this will only be achieved if the industry itself pushes for the adoption by [the] IMO of some suitably ambitious objectives, so that all concerned are under no illusion about the scale of the task ahead.” Shipping needs 85% GHG cuts by 2050 if seen as a nation | TradeWinds Page 2 of 2 http://